Friday, 30 August 2013

Trading Psychology

All of us involved in trading, have heard the cliches - 'Cut the losers early', 'Run the winners for long'. Very easy to understand and very difficult to implement because its impossible to decipher in the real time which of the trades is going to be eventually a winner and which of them is going to be a loser. Of late, I have been trying, rather working on deciphering of the above quotes in real time trading and have been able to implement the essence of the above golden cliches to a certain extent, though not always (we shall eventually do it). The fear of draw down in a profitable trades always makes you book the profit early, though there is no cutting the losses early except at the predefined SL or the TSL. Of late, I have moved to Trend Following Trading and hence only way to get out of a trade is through SL/TSL for a losing trade and TSP (Trail Stop Profit) for a wining trade. Still keeping the Stops (SL/TSL/TSP) many times don't let you enjoy the full juice that was to unfold in the trade. Reason - The FEAR of drawdown. Suppose 'risk' is defined as x number of points on Nifty Futures, conventional trading would suggest book your profits at 2x points from the point of entry. But it is not common for the trades to run upto 3x, 4x and even 10x in intraday trades in smaller time frames, with tigher and valid SLs. One winner is enough to pay all the whipsaws - but how many of us are actually able to hold on to a winner to actually to 10x or whatever it might offer. This brings me to the conclusion that a trader needs to have the qualities of the 'trust' and 'faith' and 'confidence'. In what? Trust in his 'system' which he has back tested and has logically convincing rules for entry and exits, Faith in one's ability and market (market is not there to loot him always - it rathers rewards disciplined traders handsomely in the long run) and Confidence in his own self. Else it's very difficult to stick to rules of one's Trading System.

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